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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.07.24 10:01l 379 Lines 11413 Bytes #179 (0) @ WW
BID : 4075_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-JUL24
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<PI8ZTM<PI8LAP<K5DAT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240708/0700Z 4075@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 513
WW 513 TORNADO TX CW 080345Z - 081500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
UPPER TEXAS COAST
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM
UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE ASHORE OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RAINBANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WILL POSE A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF ANGLETON TX TO 60
MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 14040.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512
WW 512 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 072220Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF CHICKASHA OK TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK TX. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29025.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511
WW 511 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 072050Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM MDT SUN JUL 7 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, INITIALLY
INCLUDING AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE AS STORMS
CLUSTER INTO THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF LIMON
CO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RATON NM. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30025.
...GUYER
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 513 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0513 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0513 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0512 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0511 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO
45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
..THORNTON..07/08/24
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT HUERFANO
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO
KSC071-203-080340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREELEY WICHITA
NMC007-021-033-059-080340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
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SPC MD 1554
MD 1554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR UPPER TEXAS COAST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TEXAS COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 080327Z - 080600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVANCES NORTH.
DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS ADVANCING STEADILY NORTH TOWARD
THE UPPER TX COAST LATE THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS,
ORGANIZED OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD INLAND, AND
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE
OVER BRAZORIA INTO SOUTHEAST MATAGORDA COUNTY. VWP DATA FROM HGX
EXHIBITS GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH NOW ON
THE ORDER OF 250 M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON WITH THESE BANDS.
..DARROW/HART.. 07/08/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 28939662 29879568 30299430 29789360 29119484 28409623
28939662
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SPC JUL 8, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2024
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS
COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL APPROACHES
THE COAST AND MAKES LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
50S F. FROM NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO, MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY THE RAP TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY
IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND SHEAR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR IS
SAMPLED BY THE PUEBLO WSR-88D VWP, WHICH HAS 0-6 KM NEAR 55 KNOTS,
OWING TO AN ABRUPT EAST-TO-WEST SHIFT IN THE WINDS NEAR 2 KM AGL.
THIS WILL HELP STORMS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM WEST TEXAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP
NEAR THE FRONT, WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE. THE FREDERICK, OKLAHOMA WSR-88D VWP HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30
KNOTS, WITH SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM
AGL. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING, AS CELLS GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
BERYL'S CENTER, BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
BERYL WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT, MAINLY IF SEMI-DISCRETE
ROTATING CELLS CAN FORM WITHIN THE MORE WELL-DEVELOPED RAINBANDS.
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEXAS COAST AS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF BERYL MOVES
INLAND.
..BROYLES.. 07/08/2024
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