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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.08.24 09:30l 481 Lines 12644 Bytes #229 (0) @ WW
BID : 6689_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-AUG24
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240828/0731Z 6689@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 660
WW 660 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 280015Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING WHILE
POSING A THREAT FOR MAINLY SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTH BEND IN TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH BEND IN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 658...WW 659...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30035.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658
WW 658 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI LM 272210Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE AUG 27 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THEY MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. LARGE HAIL AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
A THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS, BUT SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 60-70 MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GROW INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF RACINE
WI TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARSEILLES IL. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 656...WW 657...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30025.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 660 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0660 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO 20 SE
SBN TO 15 E AZO.
..DEAN..08/28/24
ATTN...WFO...IWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC017-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-149-169-181-183-
280440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS ELKHART FULTON
HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
PULASKI STARKE WABASH
WHITE WHITLEY
MIC149-280440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. JOSEPH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0659 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CLE TO
35 N YNG TO 30 NW ERI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
..SQUITIERI..08/28/24
ATTN...WFO...CLE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC007-055-280140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA GEAUGA
PAC039-049-280140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD ERIE
LEZ149-169-280140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0658 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 658
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MMO TO
5 E VPZ.
WW 658 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
..DEAN..08/28/24
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 658
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-197-280400-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANKAKEE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON
WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-280400-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0657 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S AZO TO
25 SSW FNT TO 30 S BAX TO 10 ESE BAX TO 15 NNE BAX TO 25 SE APN.
..LYONS..08/27/24
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-272240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HURON LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC
WASHTENAW WAYNE
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-272240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0656 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE AZO
TO 25 WNW JXN TO 20 WNW OSC.
..LYONS..08/27/24
ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC069-075-272240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IOSCO JACKSON
LHZ363-272240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2023
MD 2023 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IL
INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT TUE AUG 27 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN IL INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658...
VALID 280239Z - 280415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN IL, WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS STRONGLY
UNSTABLE (WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG), BUT WITH ONLY WEAK TO
MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES (AS
NOTED ON THE 00Z ILX/DVN SOUNDINGS) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BRIEFLY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL. A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN IL FROM NORTHEAST
MO/SOUTHEAST IA, WITH SMALLER OUTFLOWS BEING GENERATED BY
REDEVELOPING STORMS WITHIN THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE EVENING, BEFORE INCREASINGLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING RESULTS IN A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT.
..DEAN.. 08/28/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41079060 41458884 41528784 41558737 41418713 41118715
40818752 40538853 40428999 40439026 40509056 41079060
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 28, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT TUE AUG 27 2024
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TONIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 28/12Z. WESTERLY FLOW IS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED, THOUGH A SYNOPTIC FRONT DOES CURRENTLY EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI ARCING INTO SOUTHERN NE.
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS WI/MI WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF ONE MCS NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE AS IT PROPAGATES INTO EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA
AS BUOYANCY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY. UPSTREAM ALONG THE TRAILING SYNOPTIC FRONT, A RESERVOIR OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM NORTHERN IL INTO
NORTHERN MO. ROBUST CONVECTION IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE CHICAGO METRO. THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE INTO
NORTHERN IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
HAIL/WIND.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO
NORTHEAST KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DEVIANT IN STORM MOTION DUE
TO WEAK FLOW, DRIVEN LARGELY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND THE PRESENCE
OF EXTREME INSTABILITY. HAIL/WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
..DARROW.. 08/28/2024
READ MORE
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