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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.09.25 20:00l 216 Lines 6280 Bytes #279 (0) @ WW
BID : 2248_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-SEP
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250920/1830Z 2248@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 192250Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 550 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE
HAIL, AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY KS TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON KS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
32025.
...BUNTING
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0615 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HLC TO
10 W ICT.
WW 615 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200400Z.
..HALBERT..09/20/25
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC047-055-057-069-083-095-097-101-135-200400-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS FINNEY FORD
GRAY HODGEMAN KINGMAN
KIOWA LANE NESS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2105
MD 2105 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...
VALID 200343Z - 200445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO INTERMITTENTLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AS
WW 0615 EXPIRES. NO DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
INCIDENTS OF HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, NO FURTHER WW
ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..HALBERT.. 09/20/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38420044 38619996 38539937 38179875 37899841 37689816
37449811 37219837 37089869 37079925 37089965 37129997
37370023 37980044 38420044
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC SEP 20, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING, BEFORE
PERHAPS CONSOLIDATING INTO A SMALL CLUSTER WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION NOW TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, REMAINS A FOCUS FOR
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE HILL CITY/RUSSELL
VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION.
ALTHOUGH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY
NEAR MODEST LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, IS BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG BENEATH 30-40 KT
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 03-06Z. AS THIS
OCCURS, ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE MAINTAINED, AND
POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL ORGANIZING CLUSTER WITH
DIMINISHING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STABILIZING NEAR SURFACE
LAPSE RATES, THOUGH, UNSATURATED LAYERS IN THE LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 09/20/2025
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