| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 22.01.25 07:03l 275 Lines 10225 Bytes #265 (0) @ WW
BID : 4741_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-JAN25
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<VK5RSV<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250122/0500Z 4741@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED JAN 22 00:44:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED JAN 22 00:44:02 UTC 2025.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MD 52
MD 0052 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 212252Z - 220445Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE
BAND.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET OF 100 TO 140 KNOTS IS LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET LOCATED IN
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
BENEATH THIS FEATURE (WHERE LIFT IS STRONG) FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME
REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A
BAND OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER TO THE WEST, SNOWFALL
RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 01/21/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31968552 31388505 30768485 30258490 29918518 29958587
30098666 30118728 29978839 29728905 29538948 29508972
29708985 29978979 30298952 30718851 31188774 32058650
31968552
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MD 51
MD 0051 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 212154Z - 220400Z
SUMMARY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GA AND NORTHERN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INITIAL
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
HEAVY SNOW, WITH RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR, DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2140 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD
AREA OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS ALSO EXPANDING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. SO FAR, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
ABOVE FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FROM UPSTREAM STATIONS IN THE MID TO LOW 20S F SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. COLUMNAR COOLING WILL BE FURTHER
AIDED BY RAPID MOISTENING AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, CONCURRENT WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM HEAVIER
BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFY, AN INITIAL WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY FAST TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM THE FAR
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GA BETWEEN 23-02Z. STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1"/HR FOR A FEW HOURS
AS SNOW GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
..LYONS.. 01/21/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30088437 30198306 31128159 31988108 32488132 32928181
33008217 32508404 31498515 30518497 30088437
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC JAN 22, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
TONIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION. EAST OF THE ROCKIES, DOWNSLOPE WARMING HAS CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. OTHERWISE, COLD SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND GULF BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS DID
SHIFT BACK INLAND ACROSS THE MID/UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM/DRY
LAYERS ALOFT (EVIDENT IN 22/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS) WILL SUPPRESS
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ROOTED WITHIN WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER
INSTABILITY, BEFORE THE FRONT ADVANCES BACK ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
..KERR.. 01/22/2025
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED TO THE MALIBU COAST VICINITY,
AND NUDGED WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST IN SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND
SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE. FOR BOTH AREAS, THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DEPICTING 20+ MPH
SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) AMID
SINGLE-DIGIT TO LOWER TEENS RH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO DAY 3/THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
..WEINMAN.. 01/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT LIKELY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT BASIN TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY). ANOTHER DAY OF OFFSHORE FLOW
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED. BY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WIND SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH RH DROPPING TO AT LEAST THE 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN
TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS. ANYWHERE FROM THE VENTURA VALLEY REGION TO
THE LAGUNA MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
METEOROLOGICAL SURFACE CONDITIONS, NECESSITATING THE INTRODUCTION OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THIS OUTLOOK.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VALID 231200Z - 291200Z
...DAY 3/THURSDAY - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A MIDLEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, FAVORING DRY/WINDY
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
20+ MPH (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) WILL COINCIDE WITH SINGLE-DIGIT TO LOWER
TEENS RH INTO DAY 3/THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS,
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY DAY 4/FRIDAY,
THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST -- WITH LOCALLY BREEZY/GUSTY
WINDS STILL POSSIBLE OVER TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS. BY DAY 5/SATURDAY,
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CA,
REDUCING THE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ON DAY 3/THURSDAY, DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ -- ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. ON DAY 4/FRIDAY, DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MARGINAL
FUELS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS LOCALIZED. DRY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY
5/SATURDAY -- AHEAD OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, FUELS DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
CRITICAL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 01/21/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
ARGEN-X BBS FIDONET - TELNET ARGENX.KOZOW.COM PORT 23000
HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
