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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.04.25 16:21l 211 Lines 7433 Bytes #347 (0) @ WW
BID : 9989_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-APR25
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<PI8ZTM<VK2IO<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 250411/1400Z 9989@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI APR 11 10:41:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI APR 11 10:41:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 11 10:41:01 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 11 10:41:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC APR 11, 2025 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE HAS ABOVE-AVERAGE
SPREAD ACROSS LATEST RUNS AND POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CYCLONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
IDENTIFYING A MESOSCALE CORRIDOR OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT,
GIVEN INITIALLY POOR QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO A
PRONOUNCED EML. THE SLOWER GUIDANCE WITH MORE NORTHERN
DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PLAUSIBLE
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE, ROUNDS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN A
BROAD BUT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME.
BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL.
...CO/KS...
ATOP AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS, A
FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME PREVALENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM CO INTO KS, THAT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING SURFACE FRONT. GUIDANCE
HAS ABOVE-AVERAGE SPREAD ON THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT OF WHERE
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM, YIELDING A BROAD LOW-PROBABILITY THUNDER
AREA IN THIS FORECAST.
..GRAMS.. 04/11/2025
READ MORE
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SPC APR 11, 2025 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/MONDAY...
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A BROADENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN ON/QC BORDER AREA. POLEWARD MOISTURE QUALITY FROM
THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN SUB-OPTIMAL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE BENEATH A LOBE OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EML. THE
NORTHEAST EXTENT OF WEAK SURFACE BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE OH
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL COINCIDE
WITH ROBUST 700-500 MB SOUTHWESTERLIES, YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR
FAST-MOVING CONVECTION. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN
THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
...D7/THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF A PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TO NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH, ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY IS QUITE POOR. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. WITH POTENTIALLY
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RELATIVE TO THE D3-4 SYSTEM, SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY BECOME EVIDENT ONCE PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
IN PLACE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS, A LEE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LEE TROUGH WILL INDUCE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THEN NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A DRY
RETURN FLOW SCENARIO. THE RESULT WILL BE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE LOW TWENTIES TO MID TEENS AND AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPGRADING TO CRITICAL WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH FUEL MOISTURE, WITH ERC PERCENTILES LESS THAN 80%
AND MORE GENERALLY LESS THAN 60%.
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN.
THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW IN
THE 925-850 MILLIBAR LAYER RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY
WINDS.
..MARSH.. 04/11/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH TO WESTERN TROUGH, CENTRAL RIDGE, AND EASTERN
TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AT THE SAME TIME AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STRETCH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS (LOCALLY INTO THE
UPPER-SINGLE DIGITS) WITH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AREA.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED.
WITHIN THE ELEVATED, SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS IN THE
CORRIDOR HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CRITICAL AREA. THIS, COUPLED WITH ERC
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 80%, SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
CRITICAL DELINEATION.
... FLORIDA PENINSULA ...
A DRY, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE PENINSULA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THUS,
FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY. THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FLOW TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..MARSH.. 04/11/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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