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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.05.24 12:00l 744 Lines 21502 Bytes #351 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-MAY24
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Sent: 240520/0700Z 1525@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265
WW 265 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 200250Z - 200700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE WATCH AREA. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF ALVA
OK TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 262...WW
263...WW 264...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
WW 264 SEVERE TSTM OK 200035Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 735 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY MATURE
SUPERCELL. THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN LATER THIS EVENING
AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STRENGTHENS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ENID OK TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OK. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW
261...WW 262...WW 263...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27025.
...SMITH
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263
WW 263 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 200010Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY EVENING FROM 710 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY
BE CAPABLE OF 60-70 MPH GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE RISK IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF
MOBRIDGE SD TO 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW
261...WW 262...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
23035.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262
WW 262 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 192320Z - 200700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 60-85 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CORES AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF LAMONI IA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW 261...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0265 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-033-077-095-173-191-200440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER COMANCHE
HARPER KINGMAN SEDGWICK
SUMNER
OKC003-053-059-093-151-153-200440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA GRANT HARPER
MAJOR WOODS WOODWARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0264 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW OKC
TO 20 SE END TO 40 S AVK.
..KERR..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC027-047-051-071-081-083-087-103-109-113-117-119-125-200440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND GARFIELD GRADY
KAY LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0263 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 263
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HON
TO 30 NNE HON.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 263 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/04Z.
..KERR..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC013-059-115-200400-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN HAND SPINK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0262 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC039-053-117-121-159-173-175-181-185-200440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE DECATUR LUCAS
MADISON RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION WARREN WAYNE
KSC001-003-005-011-019-021-031-035-037-043-045-049-059-073-087-
091-099-103-107-121-125-133-205-207-209-200440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH
LINN MIAMI MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0261 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW GCK
TO 40 NNW GLD TO 20 W IML TO 20 E IML TO 15 S HLC.
..MOORE..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-109-153-179-193-200240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERIDAN THOMAS
NEC057-087-200240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0260 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CSM
TO 45 SE DDC TO 20 NNW HUT TO 40 SSE BIE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
..MOORE..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-017-033-041-061-077-079-095-113-115-127-151-155-161-
173-191-200240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COMANCHE DICKINSON GEARY
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
PRATT RENO RILEY
SEDGWICK SUMNER
OKC003-039-043-053-093-151-153-200240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CUSTER DEWEY
GRANT MAJOR WOODS
WOODWARD
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0259 STATUS UPDATES
200240-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 9V9 TO
45 W 9V9 TO 45 WSW MBG TO 45 NNE Y22.
..MOORE..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC021-031-041-065-085-107-119-129-200240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
HUGHES LYMAN POTTER
SULLY WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 847
MD 0847 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262...
VALID 200338Z - 200545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY SLOWLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, BUT PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND MISSOURI LAKE
OF THE OZARKS, INTO THE COLUMBIA AND JEFFERSON CITY VICINITIES,
THROUGH MIDNIGHT-1 AM CDT. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED, BUT WW 262 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICES HAVE
CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION NOW
PASSING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TOPEKA KS VICINITY. THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED, WITH A STRONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL
(INCLUDING 6-8 MB 2 HOURLY RISES AT 03Z) ADVANCING ACROSS THE
EMPORIA AND CHANUTE VICINITIES OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY, BUT THE APEX OF THE
EVOLVING BOW ECHO IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
GUST FRONT) IS STILL ADVANCING EASTWARD AROUND 45-50 KT. AT THIS
CONTINUED MOTION, IT WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSOURI LAKE OF THE
OZARKS AREA INTO COLUMBIA AND JEFFERSON CITY VICINITIES THROUGH
05-06Z. AS IT DOES, LESS UNSTABLE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONVECTION, BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS
MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH.
..KERR.. 05/20/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...ICT...
LAT...LON 38999474 39219374 38749251 37939288 37339415 37239543
38139463 38999474
READ MORE
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SPC MD 846
MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260...
VALID 200228Z - 200430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING FOCUSED
NEAR THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE BORDER VICINITY
MAY POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
DISCUSSION...TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE VICINITY, AREA VWP DATA CONFIRM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING TO 50+ KT IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TOWARD THE
MEDICINE LODGE KS VICINITY. AN INCREASE IN NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER VICINITY TO
THE SOUTH OF MEDICINE LODGE, IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT OF SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG.
AS WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA, IT APPEARS THAT
AN INCREASINGLY BETTER-DEFINED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE (ROUGHLY
AROUND 700 MB) NEAR THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE
BORDER VICINITY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION INTO
THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD INCLUDE ANOTHER UPSCALE GROWING
AND ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY
STRONG SHEAR.
..KERR.. 05/20/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37389894 37459798 37269537 36049548 35879764 36289899
36849964 37389894
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 20, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
2 STORMS CLUSTERS HAVE NOW CONGEALED INTO A LARGE LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING 75 TO 100 MPH WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING. WHILE
THE EXTREME WIND THREAT IS LIKELY OVER, 70-80 MPH WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THIS SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEE MCD 842 FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, A PERSISTENT, LARGE SUPERCELL CONTINUES ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SUPERCELL HAS A HISTORY OF BASEBALL SIZED
HAIL AND AT LEAST ONE TORNADO. THIS STORM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
INHIBITION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AHEAD OF IT. THE
HRRR SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE TRAILING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE KANSAS MCS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
...DAKOTAS...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS PRODUCED A SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS THREAT
HAS MOSTLY ABATED, BUT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE
MCD 841.
..BENTLEY.. 05/20/2024
READ MORE
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