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LU9DCE > ALERT    04.05.24 10:00l 607 Lines 17727 Bytes #353 (0) @ WW
BID : 9186_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-MAY24
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 240504/0701Z 9186@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182

WW 182 SEVERE TSTM KS NE OK 040245Z - 040900Z
      

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
  SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
  NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
  UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...MULTIPLE WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AS WELL AS
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHER AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF BEATRICE NE TO 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENID OK. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...WW 179...WW
180...WW 181...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.

...GUYER

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181

WW 181 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 032250Z - 040500Z
      

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM MDT FRI MAY 3 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST COLORADO
  NORTHERN KANSAS
  SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
  1100 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...BANDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING, INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
BURLINGTON CO TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS NE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...WW 179...WW 180...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27025.

...GUYER

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180

WW 180 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 032100Z - 040400Z
      

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO
  WESTERN KANSAS
  NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
  OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
  NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
  1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A FEW BANDS OF INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST LATER
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SEVERE GUSTS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF GARDEN CITY KS TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUYMON OK. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...WW 179...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.

...SMITH

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179

WW 179 SEVERE TSTM TX 032030Z - 040300Z
      

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3.5
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SUPERCELLS
WILL BE THE PREFERRED THUNDERSTORM TYPE.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF A RISK FOR LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF SAN ANGELO TX TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27020.

...SMITH

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0182 STATUS UPDATES
      

STATUS FOR WATCH 0182 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0181 STATUS UPDATES
      

STATUS REPORT ON WW 181

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE GLD
TO 45 SSW EAR TO 15 S EAR TO 10 WNW EAR TO 30 NNW GRI.

..GOSS..05/04/24

ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 181 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC065-089-123-141-147-163-179-183-040440-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GRAHAM               JEWELL              MITCHELL            
OSBORNE              PHILLIPS            ROOKS               
SHERIDAN             SMITH               

NEC001-019-035-059-061-079-081-093-099-121-129-169-181-185-
040440-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BUFFALO             CLAY                
FILLMORE             FRANKLIN            HALL                
HAMILTON             HOWARD              KEARNEY             
MERRICK              NUCKOLLS            THAYER              
WEBSTER              YORK                

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0180 STATUS UPDATES
      

STATUS REPORT ON WW 180

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CAO
TO 30 SW SPD TO 25 SE LHX TO 45 NW GCK TO 25 SW HLC.

..GOSS..05/04/24

ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC009-099-040440-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BACA                 PROWERS             

KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-063-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-
101-119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-040440-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               CLARK               COMANCHE            
EDWARDS              ELLIS               FINNEY              
FORD                 GOVE                GRANT               
GRAY                 HAMILTON            HASKELL             
HODGEMAN             KEARNY              KIOWA               
LANE                 MEADE               MORTON              
NESS                 PAWNEE              PRATT               
RUSH                 SCOTT               SEWARD              
STAFFORD             STANTON             STEVENS             
TREGO                

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0179 STATUS UPDATES
      

STATUS REPORT ON WW 179

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DRT
TO 65 NE 6R6 TO 30 NNW SJT.

..GOSS..05/04/24

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC105-137-265-267-271-319-323-327-385-413-435-465-040240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CROCKETT             EDWARDS             KERR                
KIMBLE               KINNEY              MASON               
MAVERICK             MENARD              REAL                
SCHLEICHER           SUTTON              VAL VERDE           

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC TORNADO WATCH 178 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0178 STATUS UPDATES
      

STATUS REPORT ON WW 178

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BGS
TO 55 NE BGS TO 50 NNE ABI.

..GOSS..05/04/24

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC049-059-081-083-095-151-207-235-253-307-353-399-417-431-441-
451-040240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWN                CALLAHAN            COKE                
COLEMAN              CONCHO              FISHER              
HASKELL              IRION               JONES               
MCCULLOCH            NOLAN               RUNNELS             
SHACKELFORD          STERLING            TAYLOR              
TOM GREEN            

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC MD 624

MD 0624 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS
        

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT FRI MAY 03 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179...

VALID 040238Z - 040445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCAL SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS. 
WHILE A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WW IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED LOCALLY, NEW
WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
GENERAL ACROSS THE REGION, IN AND NEAR WW 179.  THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE ONGOING NOW OVER THE KIMBLE COUNTY VICINITY, WHERE LARGE HAIL IS
INDICATED PER RECENT WSR-88D DATA.

WHILE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS CAMS, THE KIMBLE COUNTY CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, SHIFTING SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  SEVERE RISK IN THIS AREA
APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 179 BEYOND ITS
SCHEDULED 04/03Z EXPIRATION.

..GOSS.. 05/04/2024

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29700017 30740041 30899982 30739938 30329924 29939919
            29700017 

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SPC MD 623

MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
        

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CDT FRI MAY 03 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 040226Z - 040430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST, PARTICULARLY FOR REMAINING DISCRETE STORMS. A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. REGIONAL VAD WIND SHOW AND INCREASE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET (40-50 KTS). ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET, 60+
F DEWPOINTS AND OBSERVED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON VAD WIND PROFILES AS
WELL. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST, THOUGH THE PRIMARILY LINEAR
STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT A GREATER THREAT. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF AREAS FROM
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

..WENDT/GUYER.. 05/04/2024

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39759800 40359737 40629696 40469657 39489649 38579701
            37399791 35949880 35549936 35419993 36060004 37129925
            38239881 39759800 

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SPC MAY 4, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT FRI MAY 03 2024

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY RISKS.

...01Z OUTLOOK...

COOL MID-LEVEL PROFILES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO THE
EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELL CLUSTERS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TX INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO OVERTURN MUCH
OF THE BUOYANCY ACROSS NORTHWEST TX, HENCE THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
ARE NOW PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IS APPROACHING EAGLE PASS. WILL ADJUST
SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE RIVER.

FARTHER NORTH, ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT IS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NE-NORTHWEST KS-NORTHEAST CO. IN ADDITION TO A FEW DRYLINE
SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN KS, THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST AIDED IN LARGE PART TO THE SURGING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY, AND MOMENTUM, WILL EXTEND HIGHER
SEVERE PROBS A BIT DOWNSTREAM TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH
THIS SQUALL LINE.

..DARROW.. 05/04/2024

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