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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.05.24 09:34l 94 Lines 3559 Bytes #360 (0) @ WW
BID : 9682_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-MAY24
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<EA5URD
Sent: 240512/0710Z @:EA5URD.EAMU.ESP.EU #:3184 XFBB7.07 Bid:9682_LU9DCE
R:240512/0701Z @:EA2RCF.EAVI.ESP.EU #:54998 [Vitoria] $:9682_LU9DCE
R:240512/0701Z 9682@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN MAY 12 02:16:01 UTC 2024
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN MAY 12 02:16:01 UTC 2024.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN MAY 12 02:16:01 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN MAY 12 02:16:01 UTC 2024.
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SPC MAY 12, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NM
INTO WEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST/SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
...EASTERN NM INTO TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST
NM INTO WEST TX. MODERATE BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING, BEFORE CINH INCREASES LATER TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION, BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCED SRH NEAR A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NM.
FARTHER EAST, A LONG-LIVED ELEVATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TX. THIS STORM HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING, BUT
OTHER STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS EAST TX. ISOLATED HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM
NORTHWEST INTO EAST TX LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO
NEBULOUS TO MAKE A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
TIME.
...SOUTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/FAR NORTHERN VA...
DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES (GENERALLY IN THE 50S F) AND VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY, SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN PA, AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A COUPLE STRONGER
CELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MD AND EASTERN WV (AND PERHAPS
INTO FAR NORTHERN VA) THIS EVENING, THOUGH DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH TIME. ISOLATED HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE CELLS UNTIL THEY
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.
...NORTHERN ND/MN...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ND/MN THIS
EVENING. WHILE WEAK BUOYANCY MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION,
STRONG HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
..DEAN.. 05/12/2024
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