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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.04.24 10:01l 555 Lines 16665 Bytes #96 (0) @ WW
BID : 8017_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-APR24
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Sent: 240410/0700Z 8017@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
WW 98 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 100135Z - 100900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 98
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 835 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ALONG A DRYLINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. INTENSE
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF NEW
BRAUNFELS TX TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALICE TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25035.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97
WW 97 SEVERE TSTM LA 092250Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 550 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 100 MILES NORTH OF
NATCHEZ MS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ MS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96
WW 96 SEVERE TSTM TX 092125Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 425 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
IN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS MAY
POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 135 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TX TO 40 MILES EAST OF TEMPLE TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...WW 95...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26030.
...HART
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 95
WW 95 TORNADO LA TX 091915Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 95
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM
EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MIX OF
BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL POSE THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-75 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
(ROUGHLY EF2). THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TX TO
40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0098 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
..DEAN..04/10/24
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-019-021-025-029-041-047-051-055-057-091-123-127-131-
149-163-175-177-185-187-247-249-255-259-261-273-283-285-287-297-
311-325-355-391-409-469-477-479-493-505-507-100440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA BANDERA
BASTROP BEE BEXAR
BRAZOS BROOKS BURLESON
CALDWELL CALHOUN COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL
FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES
KENDALL KENEDY KLEBERG
LA SALLE LAVACA LEE
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MEDINA
NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO
VICTORIA WASHINGTON WEBB
WILSON ZAPATA ZAVALA
GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-100440-
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0097 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..04/09/24
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-100040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0096 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS
TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT.
WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
..DEAN..04/10/24
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC145-331-100400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FALLS MILAM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 95 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0095 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE LFK TO
45 W IER TO 35 SW MLU TO 30 S LLQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
..WEINMAN..04/09/24
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-043-049-059-069-073-085-127-100040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
SABINE WINN
TXC005-403-405-100040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 407
MD 0407 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96...98... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96...98...
VALID 100312Z - 100445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96, 98
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING SEVERE-WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED HAIL RISK. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT CDT.
DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER NEAR/EAST OF AUSTIN HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF ACCELERATING EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL HAIL
CORE RECENTLY NOTED IN MRMS DATA NEAR BASTROP. MLCAPE OF GREATER
THAN 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER)
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE CLUSTER. CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS MAY
ALSO POSE AN INCREASING SEVERE-WIND THREAT AS THIS CLUSTER MOVES
EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO WESTERN PARTS OF DEEP
SOUTH TX, WHERE A COLD FRONT HAS INTERCEPTED RETURNING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGION AS WELL, AND A THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. MOST
RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH IN THIS REGION,
WHICH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TX GULF
COAST WITH TIME, ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 75 MPH. SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE NEAR THE TX COAST OVERNIGHT, AS THE UPSCALE
GROWING STORM CLUSTER ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR.
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
TOWARD THE TX GULF COAST, DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY
MIDNIGHT CDT.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/10/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28050036 29709916 30349751 31209714 31319586 31049522
30479511 30159517 29749541 28869659 27819887 27519970
28050036
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SPC APR 10, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2024
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED (INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO), WITH DAMAGING GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS WEST
TX/NORTHEAST MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THIS WITH MOISTENING MIDLEVELS ARCING FROM NEAR MAF TO WEST OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BOUNDARY LAYER
STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS ATTEMPTED TO ORGANIZE FROM
SOUTH OF DRT TO MONTERREY MEXICO. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT SUPPORTS
THIS POST-DRYLINE AIR MASS WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED THROUGH
6KM. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS BEFORE RACING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 10/12Z. GIVEN THE
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT, STRONG SHEAR, AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO. 01Z
OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS SCENARIO BY INCREASING SEVERE PROBS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
DOWNSTREAM, PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL MS.
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUE, INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO AND PERHAPS HAIL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH SUPERCELLS.
..DARROW.. 04/10/2024
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