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LU9DCE > NEWS 06.09.90 09:39l 535 Lines 21246 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21271_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-SEP
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 260902/1615Z 21271@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641
WW 641 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 020545Z - 021100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1245 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
POSE OCCASIONAL RISKS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
ROCHESTER MN TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAMP DOUGLAS WI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 640...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26035.
...HART
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640
WW 640 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 020245Z - 021000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT, TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 65 TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A LONE SUPERCELL IS ALSO PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
GUST AND LARGE HAIL IT IS GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY IA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MASON CITY
IA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...WW 639...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24035.
...MOSIER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0641 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0641 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 2 08:47:10 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 2 08:47:10 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MT AND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR. SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS AND MORE SPORADIC
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
...EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID ATLANTIC...
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OF 40-60 KT WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL TRAIL A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOWER ON, THE LAKES AND INTO MI/OH WITH A
SECOND BACKDOOR FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE
BUOYANCY AND BROAD, BUT UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
MODULATED BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
SOUTHERN ON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ENCOUNTER A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO VA/MD.
AIR MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL CONDITION AS THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM WI AND LOWER MI INTO WESTERN NY/PA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM
ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL AIDE
IN DESTABILIZATION WITH UPWARDS OF 2000-3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE BY
AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NY AND PA. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS ON ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING STORMS. A
MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE.
A GREATER TORNADO RISK MAY EVOLVE IN THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NY
AND CENTRAL PA, CONTINGENT UPON AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR STORMS AND PRESENCE OF A MORE SUPERCELLULAR MODE. NAM/RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELONGATION OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS,
AND ANY MODIFYING OLD POOL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD FURTHER ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. HIGHER TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WERE CONSIDERED, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS REMAINS LARGE.
...MT/ND...
A COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 35-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
OVERSPREAD A MODESTLY MOIST, BUT WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT. ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
MODEST BUOYANCY, STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND A DEEP, WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL ENHANCE SEVERE-WIND-GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZATION AND
CLUSTERING WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A FAST-MOVING LINE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS ARE LIKELY, WITH PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-80 MPH
POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE EVENING WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THOSE STORMS.
...WY...
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH
ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY, BUT SPORADIC STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
...MID MO VALLEY INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. MODERATE TO STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS MODEST AND WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, CONFIDENCE IN A
BROADER ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
..LYONS/WENDT.. 09/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL (INCLUDING A
COUPLE 2 INCH DIAMETER STONES AND 75+ MPH GUSTS), ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST SCATTERED
SEVERE-WIND-PRODUCING STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY AS UPPER
TROUGHS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTERIOR WEST TOMORROW
(THURSDAY). MULTIPLE IMPULSES, ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, WILL PIVOT AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND OVERSPREAD A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. AMPLE BUOYANCY AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER BOTH AREAS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SEVERAL OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS A SUBTLE IMPULSE CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IMPINGING ON THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, SERVING AS THE MOST LIKELY IMPETUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER TO CENTRAL MN, PRECEDED BY A SURFACE WARM
FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MN, TO SOUTHERN WI AND EASTERN IA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL EXCEED 70 F ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH 8+ C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THIS MOISTURE, YIELDING
3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. COINCIDENT WITH THIS STRONG BUOYANCY WILL BE
50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INITIAL STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR,
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT (A FEW STONES OF
WHICH MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER). HOWEVER, IF STORMS MERGE, A
COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS MAY DEVELOP, PERHAPS EVEN TAKING ON BOWING
TENDENCIES SHOULD IT TRAVERSE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN THIS
SCENARIO, A FOCUSED SEVERE WIND SWATH COULD OCCUR, AND A COUPLE OF
GUSTS MAY EXCEED 75 MPH. GIVEN SUCH SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXPECTED, AND THE DEPENDENCY ON FINER MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR A
HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT, ONLY CATEGORY 2/SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES
WERE INTRODUCED FOR NOW. IF CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SHOW BOW ECHO EVOLUTION, HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY. A DIFFUSE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONE SHOULD BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES, REMNANT FROM DAY 1 STORMS ALONG THE
LARGER-SCALE WARM FRONT, MAY APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY AND TRACK
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THOUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS OF THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO, STORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD 70+ F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS (WHICH WILL SUPPORT OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE). GIVEN MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE GUST THREAT, THOUGH AN INSTANCE OF HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS ON CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND EVOLUTION BECOME CLEARER.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 2, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS, ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS (WITH WIND AND HAIL) MAY OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH
UPPER TROUGHS MEANDERING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE NORTHEAST. A
BROAD WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, OVERSPREAD BY DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME, PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN THE
PROCESS.
...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV TO THE NC SHORELINE ON FRIDAY. BY AFTERNOON,
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE,
LEFT BEHIND BY STORMS IN PRECEDING DAYS, WILL PROMOTE RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 70+
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90 F WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, 30+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK (SPEED) SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS.
...PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT (I.E. 70S F DEWPOINTS),
BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL
BE QUITE SUBTLE AT BEST, STRONG HEATING AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. ONLY
MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SPARSE AND BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS
THAT MATURE AND BECOME SUSTAINED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND OR HAIL.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 2, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (CURRENTLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST) SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA. AS THIS OCCURS,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE U.S.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE IN AND AROUND THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 4/SATURDAY. A DIFFUSE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH WHILE BEING
REINFORCED FROM STORMS ON PREVIOUS DAYS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AMID A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WILL
PROMOTE DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL, HENCE THE INTRODUCTION OF 15
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
THERE IS ALSO SOME HINT AT AN MCS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN ALONG A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS WELL. WHILE ML/AI CALIBRATED
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO ELEVATE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
THIS AREA, UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE IS QUITE WEAK AT BEST,
LIMITING CONFIDENCE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES
THIS OUTLOOK.
LASTLY, THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK (I.E. NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY MATERIALIZE FROM THIS
SCENARIO, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES ARE
TOO NEBULOUS FOR THE CONFIDENT INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES
THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THOSE REGIONS, AN AREA OF WARM AND DRY AIR
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, RECENT
RAINFALL AND THEREFORE LESS DRY FUELS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTS OVER THOSE
REGIONS. MEANWHILE, CRITICALLY DRY FUELS DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT FROM
RECENT DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MT. OVER
THIS AREA, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH AMID LOW RHS OF 15-20%. AN AREA OF PARTICULARLY STRONG
WIND (NEAR 20 MPH) AND DRY RHS (NEAR 10-15%) COULD PROMOTE BRIEF
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WY. THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED TO ALTER FUELS
RECEPTIVITY, LIGHT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN (CENTRAL MT) AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN (SOUTHERN
WY) EXTENTS OF THE DRAWN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA TODAY.
..STEARNS.. 09/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL US RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT
A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO MT/WY AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN ON
DAY 2/THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE AXIS OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL WY WHERE AN ELEVATED
RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. THE THREAT IS SIMILAR IN TIME AND
SPACE TO THE PRECEDING DAY 1/WEDNESDAY ELEVATED RISK. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AMID LEE SURFACE TROUGHING, THOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG OF A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT VERSUS DAY 1/WEDNESDAY, WILL STILL SUPPORT
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME RHS OF 10-20%.
SIMILARLY, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AMID LOW DAYTIME RH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NV INTO SOUTHWESTERN UT ON THE AFTERNOON
OF DAY 2/THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MARGINAL FUELS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AFTER
PRECEDING DAYS OF RAIN SHOULD HELP TAME IMPACTS OF AN OTHERWISE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE POCKETS OF RELATIVELY DRY
FUELS LINGER.
..STEARNS.. 09/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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