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LU9DCE > NEWS 06.09.90 09:40l 465 Lines 18935 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21401_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-SEP
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 260904/1615Z 21401@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 4 08:46:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 4 08:46:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC MD 2231
MD 2231 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040840Z - 041045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR SOME HAIL OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. A
WATCH IS POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
EASTERN WI POINT TOWARD ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE
OF SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL IN THE COMING HOURS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN WI WHERE
CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS BEEN NOTED. THIS HAS LIKELY STRENGTHENED A
PREEXISTING COLD POOL WITH THE LEAD ELEMENTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. THESE STORMS WILL CROSS THE LAKE AND MOVE INTO LOWER MI IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ALOFT SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
BUOYANCY LIKELY BEING ELEVATED ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE STABLE
LAYER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE, INTO LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY OH/IN LATER THIS MORNING.
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THE STRONGER GUSTS FROM THIS CLUSTER WILL MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE. THE STRENGTHENING COLD POOL, MORE ORGANIZED
LINEAR MODE AND RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT'S POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT, CONDITIONS ARE BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 09/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42038339 41908336 41758348 41708376 41678439 41688524
41848593 42058645 42178672 42528707 42898733 43118731
43338722 43608706 43688651 42258366 42038339
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 4, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
ALSO POSE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION TODAY
THOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE U.S., DOWNSTREAM OF
POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WHICH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL INCLUDE BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS AND NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH UPPER GREAT
LAKES, TO THE NORTH OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM, LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS
IT DOES, IT LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS A PROMINENT HIGH INITIALLY CENTERED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN TROUGH, REINFORCING SURGES OF COOLER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND THROUGH THE UPPER
INTO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, AND REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS, MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY TO SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY ALREADY BE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, BENEATH THE FAVORABLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF IT WITH INSOLATION, IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN OHIO INTO THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION TO
THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND BLUE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS CLUSTER. HOWEVER, CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIATION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED VIGOROUS DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE DOWNSTREAM, CLOSER TO AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION DIGGING TO THE EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID-LEVEL RIDGING, THERE IS A NOTABLE SIGNAL WITHIN
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND RELATED GUIDANCE THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS MAY TRACK CLOSE
TO, BUT PROBABLY AT LEAST A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF, THE EARLY DAY
CLUSTER, FROM THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA VICINITY.
..KERR/CHALMERS.. 09/04/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 4, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND VICINITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
...OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN, SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC AFTER 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL FOSTER A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE MORNING
CONVECTION, RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY. EARLY CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE WV/VA MOUNTAINS AS REMNANTS FROM DAY 1
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHETHER THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE OR RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOIST AND
DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT AND ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PARTS OF THE VA/NC/SD PIEDMONT. ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS WILL MAINLY POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS ONE OF MORE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MIGRATING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NE/SD VICINITY. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE MO RIVER ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST.
IF STORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY, HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..LEITMAN.. 09/04/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 4, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MORE UNCERTAIN AND CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. SOME MODEST WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE MAY OCCUR AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CREST THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
MT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS ND INTO EASTERN SD AND THE MID-MO VALLEY
ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY. CAPPING WILL BE A MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME,
OR IF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
INTO PARTS OF MT, BUT TIMING AND OVERLAP OF STRONGER SHEAR AND
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS CONDITIONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT, IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...SOUTHEAST...
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT HIGH PW VALUES COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC
WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING AND OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION COULD OCCUR
SUCH THAT A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER COULD SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
INCREASE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/04/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 4, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4-6/MON-WED -- NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE CONTINUING EAST
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
EASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST, BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, WARM
MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN CAPPING WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT,
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND STORM COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN, PRECLUDING 15
PERCENT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO, AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER, BECOMING MOSTLY
WESTERLY. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING WHERE THE GREATEST RISK COULD EMERGE.
...DAYS 7-8/THU-FRI...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PERSISTENCE OF MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY, MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY.
...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB FLOW OWING TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES INTO THIS MORNING, WITH RH OF 15-30%
NOTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS OF 0500 UTC. A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
OF 10-15% LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA, CENTRAL WYOMING, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ALIGNED WITH
LOW RH AND RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY.
THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THIS OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
HREF WIND/RH PROBABILITIES. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF 20+ MPH WINDS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
...GREAT BASIN...
SIMILARLY DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS WHERE RECENT RAINFALL
WAS MINIMAL AND/OR WHERE POCKETS OF DRY FUELS REMAIN, GENERALLY
MARGINAL FUELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NV AND SOUTHWESTERN UT SHOULD
MITIGATE A BROADER FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CHALMERS.. 09/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING PATTERN AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. FOR DAY 2/SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST.
...GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...
DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL WYOMING ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY MANIFEST ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE RECENT RAINFALL
WAS MINIMAL AND/OR WHERE POCKETS OF DRY FUELS REMAIN. GENERALLY
MARGINAL FUELS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A BROADER
FIRE WEATHER RISK AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER. WHILE FUELS ARE MORE
RECEPTIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING, CONFIDENCE IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD (3+ HOURS) OF OVERLAP BETWEEN 15+ MPH SURFACE WINDS
AND RH BELOW 20% IS LOWER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST.
..CHALMERS.. 09/04/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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