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LU9DCE > NEWS 27.10.90 12:50l 262 Lines 8884 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26165_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-OCT
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<DM4RW<HP2DFA<W0ARP<
VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 261027/1130Z 26165@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 27 07:47:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 27 07:47:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE OCT 27 07:47:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE OCT 27 07:47:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 27, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY
WITH RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE EAST. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THIS WESTERN TROUGH,
INCLUDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHERE SOME LEE TROUGHING AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PRESENT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A REGION OF RELATIVELY GREATER
INSTABILITY (1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE) ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH FLOW FOR SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ANY STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK AND UNORGANIZED.
..BENTLEY/THORNTON.. 10/27/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 27, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
...MID-MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED MID/UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY ATOP
MODESTLY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 35 KT TYPICALLY
COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP APPEARS QUITE CONDITIONAL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN IA AND FAR EASTERN NE. COOL
TEMPERATURES ATOP THE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. NEAR NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE
EXPECTED, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND POSSIBLE INHIBITION IN LAYERS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 750 MB.
FURTHERMORE, 00Z HRRR/RRFS AND HREF/REFS DO NOT SHOW A ROBUST SIGNAL
FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITHIN THE MORE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR.
WHILE ELEVATED STORMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR SMALL HAIL, THE OVERALL
RISK APPEARS LIMITED IN THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS,
PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON TRENDS,
PROBABILITIES COULD BE INCLUDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
...FAR SW TX VICINITY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN A
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WILL AID IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F. DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK, BUT VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AROUND 20-25 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. A COUPLE OF STORM COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OR SMALL HAIL. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE PROBABILITIES.
..LEITMAN.. 10/27/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 27, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/TX AND INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST, AND ANY
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 50S TO LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY
VICINITY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION FROM
EASTERN NM INTO KS ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
HOWEVER, THE AREA OF ANY APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE DISPLACED FROM THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. OVERALL, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
..LEITMAN.. 10/27/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 27, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH DAY 6/SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST WITHIN A MODEST DEEP-LAYER
FLOW REGIME.
MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DEEPENING UPPER CYCLONE
AND ATTENDANT TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE
PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY DAYS 7-8/MONDAY-TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VIA DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL FOSTER NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE, CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE INHIBITION AROUND
850-700 MB. THIS GENERAL PATTERN COULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE IN THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A ROBUST
60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD WY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH AND MINIMUM RH OF 20% ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WY INTO WESTERN SD. HOWEVER, COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S AMID A MARGINAL FUEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT A BROADER
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/27/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
REDUCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY
2/WEDNESDAY. LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WHILE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
25-30% WILL OVERLAP DROUGHT-STRESSED FUELS IN THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, LIGHTER PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT A FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THIS REGION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/27/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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