| |
LU9DCE > NEWS 29.10.90 12:50l 260 Lines 8809 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26368_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-OCT
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261029/1130Z 26368@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU OCT 29 07:46:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU OCT 29 07:46:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU OCT 29 07:46:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU OCT 29 07:46:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC OCT 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY,
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, A SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN SPITE OF LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITHIN THE WESTERN PART OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. IN AREAS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, AND WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..BROYLES/HALBERT-E.. 10/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC OCT 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/RIO GRANDE VICINITY TO
THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. FURTHER WEST, ANOTHER
MID/UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER CO VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES, THOUGH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AZ.
...AZ...
MID/UPPER SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20-40 KT WILL OVERSPREAD
50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE MUTED IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO EARLY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDINESS. NEVERTHELESS, COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -12 TO -15 C AT 500 MB) WILL SUPPORT
500-1250 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES, INCREASING
IN SPEED IN THE MIDLEVELS, WILL RESULT IN 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AND MODESTLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. WHILE MUTED HEATING
WILL LIMIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION, AND THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY LEAD TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING, AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER, BETTER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL AZ.
..LEITMAN.. 10/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC OCT 29, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (INCREASING NEAR THE GULF COAST) AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -10 TO -12 C AT 500 MB) WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OK/TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY GENERALLY WEAK FLOW
AND LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE
SAME TIME AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
CA AND BAJA COASTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..LEITMAN.. 10/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC OCT 29, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
STATES ON DAY 4/SUN TO THE MS VALLEY BY DAY 8/THU. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST, A
STRONG AUTUMN COLD FOLD WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND AT LEAST MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL
TO THIS BOUNDARY, WITH A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO DEEP-LAYER
FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD, AND LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
NEVERTHELESS, LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT
THIS TIME, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW/UNCERTAIN/CONDITIONAL TO
INCLUDE 15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TO
MID-WEEK.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RESULTANT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS, LIGHTER PREVAILING WINDS, AND A MARGINAL FUEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIXED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, ALLOWING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. A LACK OF STRONG WIND WHERE FUELS ARE AVAILABLE TO BURN,
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ON DAY 2/FRIDAY. THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BE CATEGORIZED BY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING,
WHILE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ENTRAINED TROPICAL REMNANTS
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY PERMEATE THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
DRIEST FUELS EXIST.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
PYTHON PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 1.1 - LU9DCE.KOZOW.COM
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
