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LU9DCE > NEWS 01.11.90 12:40l 249 Lines 8972 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26688_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-NOV
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261101/1130Z 26688@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN NOV 1 08:34:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN NOV 1 08:34:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN NOV 1 08:34:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN NOV 1 08:34:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC NOV 1, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO THREAT
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
...DESERT SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE AND
DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LARGER-SCALE BAND
OF STORMS BECOMES MORE WELL-DEFINED.
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F. ALONG AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LARGE-SCALE
LINE SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS IT
APPROACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BECOME MAXIMIZED AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING FROM ROSWELL, NM NORTHWARD TO
CLOVIS, NM HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 55 TO 65 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. 0-3
KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 250 TO 350 M2/S2
RANGE IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT FORM WITHIN
THE LARGE-SCALE BAND. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE SEGMENT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ABOVE
70 KNOTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FASTER-MOVING BOWING STRUCTURES. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LINE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
..BROYLES/WEINMAN.. 11/01/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 1, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS, WITH A LEADING SPEED MAX MOVING SWIFTLY ACROSS WESTERN TX
AND TOWARD THE MO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER SPEED
MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS NM AND INTO KS, OK, AND NORTHWEST TX BY LATE IN
THE DAY, AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF KS AND OK OVERNIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL NE, WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NE AND KS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM
CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX BY 00Z, WITH MID 60S
F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ALSO
AIDING NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT NEAR THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY,
WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE QLCS STORM MODE, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK.
...PARTS OF NORTHERN TX ACROSS OK AND INTO EASTERN KS...
CAPPING DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
INHIBIT STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A ZONE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR THE DRYLINE. INITIAL CELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THERE, FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX AFTER
21Z, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 WILL BE
COMMON, THOUGH EFFECTIVENESS AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE WILL DEPEND ON
HOW WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES. AT THE VERY LEAST, INITIAL
CELLS WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE A TORNADO RISK, WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK OF AN EF2 TORNADO
EXISTS DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR, AND DEPENDING ON DESTABILIZATION.
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE ACROSS OK,
NORTH TX AND EASTERN KS, WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z.
..JEWELL.. 11/01/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 1, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST SUN NOV 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARD THE SABINE
RIVER...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS.
...DISCUSSION...
ON TUESDAY, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MS VALLEY, WITH AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SABINE VALLEY TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL FURTHER TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE MID MS VALLEY, AND UPPER 60S F
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST. SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE, AND THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY AND TO THE SABINE RIVER WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. WIND PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. FARTHER NORTH INTO MO AND IL, SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK. STRONG WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 11/01/2026
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.
..WEINMAN.. 11/01/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND 25-35 PERCENT RH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, PRECEDING RAINFALL ATOP ALREADY UNRECEPTIVE
FUELS WILL LIMIT FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS,
A MINIMAL OVERLAP OF DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LIMIT
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WEINMAN.. 11/01/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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