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LU9DCE > NEWS 02.11.90 12:50l 283 Lines 10159 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26789_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-NOV
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<DM4RW<GB7BED<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 261102/1130Z 26789@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON NOV 2 08:57:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON NOV 2 08:57:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON NOV 2 08:57:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON NOV 2 08:57:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC NOV 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SUN NOV 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F OVER MUCH
OF TEXAS, OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. ACROSS THE MOIST
SECTOR, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS
ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR.
THE CONVECTIVE MODE IS THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT. IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL LINE OUT QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THAT DISCRETE CELL FORMATION WILL BE MINIMIZED. EVEN
SO, WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED LINES AND POTENTIALLY
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS SUGGEST
THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRESENT, THE STRONGER COMPONENT WILL BE SPEED INCREASES
WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS. NEAR THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET,
0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 250 TO 300
M2/S2 RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND
WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE
SEGMENTS, ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. A GREATER TORNADO
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS, IF A
CLUSTER OF DISCRETE CELLS CAN PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AS A LARGER-SCALE LINE SEGMENT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOIST
SECTOR, REACHING WESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A QLCS TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.
...TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS INTO AFTERNOON. THIS CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A CONVECTIVE BAND, WITH A MIXED
MODE, IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FORECAST BAND BY 00Z, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S F, WITH MLCAPE
REACHING THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CELLS THAT CONGEAL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO
MID EVENING. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
..BROYLES/WEINMAN.. 11/02/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 2, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST MON NOV 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER MO AND AR DURING THE DAY, AND
INTO IL AND WESTERN KY AND TN OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MN,
NEARLY STATIONARY, WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS IA, MO, AND
INTO THE SABINE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH 30-40 KT AT 850 MB WILL AID MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT
EARLY, THOUGH A DIURNAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM THE
SABINE RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MO.
THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR ON TUESDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS,
RAIN, AND WEAK LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL, AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS SHEAR
PROFILES OVERALL WILL FAVOR ROTATION WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, OR
POSSIBLE CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LA INTO AR.
..JEWELL.. 11/02/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 2, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST MON NOV 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GLANCING HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AS A LEADING SPEED MAX ALOFT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE OH VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF
WI AND TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WINDS SHIFT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY.
WHILE LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, MID TO
UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY FROM AL INTO GA
AND EASTERN TN. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC, AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM, WANING LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
KY/TN/AL/GA.
..JEWELL.. 11/02/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 2, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CST MON NOV 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON THUR/D4, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAK AS THE
LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN USA. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THUR INTO
FRI/D5. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, BUT
THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS.
FROM SAT/D6 TO MON/D8, AN UPPER RIDGE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST,
WITH POSSIBLE TROUGH AMPLIFICATIONS INTO THE PLAINS AS UPPER WAVES
ROUND THE RIDGE AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
REINFORCEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES,
WITH MINIMAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CST MON NOV 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY.
..WEINMAN.. 11/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CST MON NOV 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ON TUESDAY.
..WEINMAN.. 11/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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