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LU9DCE > NEWS 13.05.90 14:05l 334 Lines 13588 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13447_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-MAY
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260513/1130Z 13447@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 13 07:31:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 13 07:31:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 13 07:31:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 13 07:31:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAY 13, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN UTAH
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
... SYNOPSIS ...
AN AMPLIFIED, YET PROGRESSIVE, MIDLEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE US ON WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A MEXICO-TO-CANADA MIDLEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE, AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER, DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
... PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
...
AS THE POTENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AN ATTENDANT 80-90 KNOT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND INCREASING CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE FAST
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
... OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ...
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD NORTHERN NEW
YORK, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE ENDING UP NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE NORTHERN NEW YORK SURFACE
LOW WILL REDEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
LOW-TO-MID-50FS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH A 50 KNOT MIDLEVEL JET AND MODEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.
... TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO ...
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO ERODE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
..MARSH/WEINMAN.. 05/13/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAY 13, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, WITH MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY, NORTHERN OZARKS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHERN OZARKS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND OZARKS ON THURSDAY, AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. DURING THE DAY, THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. IN THE
AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG A DRYLINE IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE,
0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 8 C/KM
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
CAN BECOME INTENSE. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED, INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THIS TROUGH OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AS A FEW OF
THE DEVELOPING CELLS MIX THE STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/13/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 13, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
WITHIN THE FLOW, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A POCKET OF MOIST AIR FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. WITHIN THIS
MOIST AIRMASS, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET.
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA
SHOW A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE
IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE WITH 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THESE TWO AREAS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 05/13/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. WEDGED BETWEEN WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING AND AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S., UPPER RIDGING WILL
SLIDE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, A RAPIDLY EVOLVING LEE-SIDE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DEEPEN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASES. THIS WILL PRESENT A MULTIFACETED FIRE
WEATHER SETUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
...NORTHERN MONTANA...
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO CENTRAL MT WILL USHER IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH RH REDUCTIONS OF 20-30 PERCENT,
PROMOTING BROAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS
WERE MAINTAINED WHERE AN ALIGNMENT OF RH OF 20 PERCENT OR BELOW AND
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT AND FAR
WESTERN ND ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INITIALLY HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MT WEDNESDAY WHERE ISODRYT
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
...SOUTHWEST, UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND COLORADO RIVER BASIN...
AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS OVER
ID INTO WESTERN MT, DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15-25 MPH (LOCALIZED 30
MPH IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN) AND RH OF 10-15 PERCENT WILL ALIGN
WITH DRYING FUELS TO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CO RIVER BASIN INTO CENTRAL WY.
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES (WITH A PROMINENT DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER) WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NM, FAR EASTERN AZ, CENTRAL UT, AND
SOUTHWEST WY INTO THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. VARIOUS STAGES OF
GREEN UP AND MIXED CURING FUELS HAS RESULTED IN A COMPLICATED
FUELSCAPE, RESULTING IN EXPANSIVE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS AND A BROADER
ISODRYT RISK AREA.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES/CANADA
BORDER AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TRANSITIONS
TO A CLOSED LOW. UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST, GRADUALLY FLATTENING AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF A
CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
EAST OF THE CO/NM HIGHER TERRAIN THUS ENHANCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER MIXING TO PROMOTE A BROAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBTLE FORCING ASSOCIATING WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COULD AID IN HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT, A ROBUST MID-LEVEL
JET AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEST RH OF 20-30 PERCENT AND WEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT AND TERRAIN
FAVORED AREAS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. A WIDESPREAD TRANSITION TO
GREEN UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS MAY SOMEWHAT MITIGATE
FUEL RECEPTIVITY. HOWEVER, IN AREAS WITH MINIMAL GREEN UP AND/OR
MIXED RECEPTIVE FUELS, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
EMERGE WHERE RH COULD DECREASE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED FLOW OF 15-20 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS OF
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AMID A DRY FUELSCAPE WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER EAST, INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE AN ISODRYT RISK AREA HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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