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CX2SA > SWPC 21.07.14 23:24l 60 Lines 2110 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8115-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 140721/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:8115 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8115-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 299 km/s at
21/1710Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2043Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1423Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24
Jul).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 090
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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