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CX2SA > SWPC 30.10.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2317 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30527_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151030/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30527 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30527_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
30/2016Z from Region 2443 (N06E56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
402 km/s at 30/1826Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0845Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2125Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
29/2125Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 121
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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