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CX2SA > SWPC 01.11.15 23:21l 63 Lines 2312 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 31990_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<IR0AAB<GB7CIP<ED1ZAC<LU7DBA<LW1DRJ<
LW8DJW<CX2SA
Sent: 151101/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:31990 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:31990_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0027Z from Region 2443 (N07E29). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 01/0345Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0454Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0428Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (02 Nov), active to
major storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (04 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 124
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 036/065-033/050-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/35
Minor Storm 35/40/15
Major-severe storm 40/30/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/10
Minor Storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 90/85/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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