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CX2SA > SWPC 10.11.15 23:23l 65 Lines 2455 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33283_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151110/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33283 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33283_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/1411Z from Region 2443 (N07W95). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 947 km/s at 10/1520Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2112Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2254Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3
pfu at 10/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 19551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 105
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 022/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 026/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 013/018-022/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/60/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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