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CX2SA > SWPC 14.11.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2217 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33626_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151114/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33626 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33626_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 14/0259Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2100Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 106
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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