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CX2SA > SWPC 15.11.15 23:22l 61 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33711_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151115/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33711 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33711_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Nov,
17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
467 km/s at 14/2154Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1611Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2057Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2086 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov)
and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 106
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 104/102/100
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/008-008/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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