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CX2SA > SWPC 19.11.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2255 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34000_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151119/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34000 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34000_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov,
21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 538 km/s at 19/0019Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2102Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 298
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 108
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 108/108/110
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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