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CX2SA > SWPC 21.11.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2273 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34170_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151121/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34170 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34170_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1324Z from Region 2454 (N13W40). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 21/0139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2252Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov,
23 Nov, 24 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 122
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 008/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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