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CX2SA > SWPC 22.11.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2324 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34222_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151122/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34222 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34222_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/0538Z from Region 2454 (N13W53). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
22/0636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2140Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 123
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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