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CX2SA > SWPC 24.11.15 23:22l 60 Lines 2138 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34289_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151124/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34289 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34289_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
24/1454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 113
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 011/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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