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CX2SA > SWPC 05.12.15 22:36l 63 Lines 2347 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34793_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IV3ONZ<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 151203/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34793 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34793_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0628Z from Region 2458 (N09W79). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at
03/0255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1805Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 095
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 007/008-007/008-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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