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CX2SA > SWPC 18.12.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2368 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35751_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 151218/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35751 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35751_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0509Z from Region 2469 (N19W15). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Dec,
20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 508 km/s at
17/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2232Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 933 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (19 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 117
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 030/042-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 35/10/05
Major-severe storm 15/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/20
Minor Storm 20/35/25
Major-severe storm 70/40/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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