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CX2SA > SWPC 19.12.15 23:22l 64 Lines 2370 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35799_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151219/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35799 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35799_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/0204Z from Region 2468 (S15W54). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Dec,
21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
530 km/s at 19/1945Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 19/1549Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 19/1536Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2825 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (22
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 119
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/018-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/10/10
Minor Storm 20/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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