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CX2SA > SWPC 20.12.15 23:22l 64 Lines 2349 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35898_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151220/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35898 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35898_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/2228Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Dec,
22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 536 km/s at 19/2326Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 20/2054Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 20/0412Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (23
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 117
Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 20 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 038/059
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 019/020-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 35/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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