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CX2SA > SWPC 23.12.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2389 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36102_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151223/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:36102 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:36102_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
23/0040Z from Region 2473 (S23E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 23/1343Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1304Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1252Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3889 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 134
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 135/130/125
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 010/012-012/014-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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