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CX2SA > SWPC 06.01.16 23:23l 64 Lines 2366 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37191-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160106/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:37191 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:37191-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1137Z from Region 2480 (N02E88). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08
Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 669 km/s at 06/1038Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 05/2219Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/2336Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2110
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 100
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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