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CX2SA > SWPC 08.01.16 23:23l 62 Lines 2328 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37267-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160108/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:37267 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:37267-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (09 Jan, 10 Jan) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
611 km/s at 08/0140Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1355Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1014Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5724 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan,
10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 109
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 108/105/100
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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