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CX2SA > SWPC 16.01.16 23:22l 63 Lines 2352 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37799-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 160116/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:37799 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:37799-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/2203Z from Region 2480 (N04W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jan,
18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
16/0407Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1425Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/0406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4799 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 100
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 006/005-007/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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