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CX2SA > SWPC 29.01.16 23:23l 62 Lines 2204 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38500-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160129/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38500 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38500-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
29/0818Z from Region 2488 (N04W66). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at
28/2226Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0151Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 107
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 108/105/100
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 006/006-006/006-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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