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CX2SA > SWPC 02.02.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2240 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38687-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160202/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38687 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38687-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1452Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb,
04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at
02/2056Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/1611Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1518Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (05 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 102
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 011/015-008/010-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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