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CX2SA > SWPC 15.02.16 00:00l 64 Lines 2366 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39270-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160214/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39270 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39270-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 14 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1926Z from Region 2497 (N12W48). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb,
17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 14/0422Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0818Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0641Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (15 Feb, 17
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Feb,
16 Feb, 17 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 108
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 109/109/105
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 019/027-011/012-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/40
Minor Storm 20/05/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/10
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/30/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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