| | CX2SA > SWPC 20.02.16 23:22l 61 Lines 2235 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39526-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160220/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39526 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39526-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/2310Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
592 km/s at 20/0805Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2108Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/0455Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15809 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 100
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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