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CX2SA > SWPC 22.02.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2188 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39615-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160222/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39615 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39615-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 22/2004Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
22/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1407Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 094
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 092/090/090
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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