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CX2SA > SWPC 23.02.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2164 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39655-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160223/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39655 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39655-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 400 km/s at 23/0711Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
23/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6678 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 091
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 007/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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