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CX2SA > SWPC 29.02.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2217 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40058-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160229/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40058 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40058-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar,
02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 29/0115Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar), unsettled levels on
day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Feb 091
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 29 Feb 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/015-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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