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CX2SA > SWPC 04.03.16 23:23l 63 Lines 2311 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40266-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160304/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40266 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40266-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/0900Z from Region 2506 (S06W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Mar,
06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0302Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/1710Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 220 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Mar, 07 Mar)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 101
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 011/012-018/022-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/35
Major-severe storm 40/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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