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CX2SA > SWPC 08.03.16 23:30l 63 Lines 2293 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40495-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IV3ONZ<IZ3LSV<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160308/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40495 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40495-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1306Z from Region 2511 (N02W36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Mar,
10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 07/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 07/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 096
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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