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CX2SA > SWPC 13.03.16 23:24l 60 Lines 2106 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40712-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 160313/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40712 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40712-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar,
15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/0239Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
13/0436Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
13/0529Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 093
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 006/005-017/025-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/35
Minor Storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/60/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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