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CX2SA > SWPC 17.03.16 23:24l 61 Lines 2229 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40871-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160317/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40871 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40871-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar,
19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 17/0805Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 16/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 16/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2338 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 092
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 014/014-008/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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