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CX2SA > SWPC 18.03.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2200 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40921-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160318/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40921 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40921-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar,
20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 18/0004Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 18/1142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7410 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 090
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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