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CX2SA > SWPC 22.03.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2164 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41081-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160322/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41081 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41081-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 22/0823Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/1235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1237 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 087
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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