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CX2SA > SWPC 23.03.16 23:24l 63 Lines 2293 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41111-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160323/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41111 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41111-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0354Z from Region 2524 (N15W16). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar,
25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 23/1948Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 932 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Mar, 25 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 087
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 005/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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