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CX2SA > SWPC 13.09.14 16:24l 67 Lines 2602 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10424-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DB0ANF<CX2SA
Sent: 140913/1519Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:10424 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:10424-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Sep 13 1455 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/2126Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14
Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 672 km/s at 12/1534Z. Total IMF reached 31 nT at 12/1813Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 12/1945Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126
pfu at 12/1555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 504 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (13 Sep, 14 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on day three
(15 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/99/90
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 152
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 016/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 026/047
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 040/050-018/025-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/30
Minor Storm 35/25/10
Major-severe storm 35/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 85/65/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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