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CX2SA > SWPC 05.04.16 23:25l 61 Lines 2197 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41799-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160405/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41799 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41799-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 439 km/s at 05/0103Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
05/0132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/1105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3924 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Apr, 08
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 083
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 083/084/087
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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